India's national election results 2024: Five key takeaways

The 18th Lok Sabha results (pending final tally) if anything, are turning out to be a national thriller and poised for a nail-biting finish. They have proved much of the political strategists, psephologists and pollsters wrong, with both opinion and exit polls portraying sharply divergent outcomes than what we are seeing today on our screens. While there’s going to be wide-angle analysis and post-poll investigations taking centre stage in the coming days, here are my quick takeaways on the verdict.

1.       Hindutva: BJP’s core narrative of cultural nationalism and Hindutva may have run its course. That they have conceded defeat in Ayodhya, just a few months following the inauguration of a grand Ram Mandir may perhaps be indicative that it’s time to move past temple politics.

2.       Class divide and inequality: Regardless of SC dismissing Hindenburg’s charges against Adani Group of companies, the rising wealth gap, class divide, inequality and the Modi government’s pro-capitalist policies seemed to have resonated well with the electorate. A point that INDIA bloc seemingly managed to reiterate rather successfully, be it in the Congress manifesto, Bharat Jodo Yatra or in multiple roadshows and rallies.

Image by Gordon Johnson from Pixabay

3.       Regional satraps' influence: No matter who rules in New Delhi, regional satraps are heroes in their states who cannot be sidelined. Attempting to impose a Hindi-centric, nationalist discourse in southern and north-eastern states whose cultural fabric is starkly different from the heartland may not garner any political mileage.

4.       Complacency hurts: There is no place for complacency whatsoever. NDA’s return to office for a third term was a foregone conclusion going by the manner and timing of BJP’s manifesto, released barely with 10 days of preparation. Contrast this with Congress whose manifesto planning kick-started in Dec 2023. Besides, the BJP manifesto appeared thin on details, too generic with broad-based development pitch that lacked specificity on the five-year agenda.

5.       Democracy is still alive: For all the chatter around EVMs tampering, abuse of institutional machinery and constitution, the results are a clear message that multi-party system is still alive and relevant and that authoritarian principles may not hold water in the long run. The mandate, it appears is less about anti-incumbency but more about anti-majoritarian regime. In other words, it’s a call for an accommodative and participative governance model that goes beyond the ‘development’ rhetoric to align with the principles of social equity and justice, and underscores the true spirit of federal co-operative model.

At the time of writing, BJP’s tally stands at 240, making it the single largest party with strength larger than INDIA block combined (233). It might well be the ATM (Another time Modi) strategy set to come into motion as the theatrics play out over the next few days in cobbling a coalition government. But Modi 3.0 in more ways than one may sport a different look, with toned down aggression, greater regional representation in the Cabinet and restricted room for big-bang reforms aka UCC, ONOP, farm sector reforms etc. while still being able to offer a stable administration.